(Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)
$GM frens. We hope you had a very good week and enjoyed the slight crypto pump to close out the weekend as much as we did. The alt coin pump is upon us, $GM is captivating crypto twitter, and NFT value is starting to come back if you know where to look. What a time to be alive.
Macro Update:
There’s still major capitulation throughout the market but we’re now at a point where we’re finally comfortable covering new mints again. But note, things will probably not be the same as they were several months ago where pictures of rocks were flipping for $1M. In our opinion, the bottom is in or certainly close. However, we think that this can hold for another month or so, picking up around Q1 in 2022. If you’re looking closely, whales are starting to scoop BAYCs at a rapid clip, OpenSea bid emails have started to pick up again for some of the projects we own, and quality new mints with the potential to build meaningful IP are continuing to sell out.
It’s times like these when outsized gains are earned, when sentiment is clearly turning positive but most people haven’t caught on yet. The seeds to serious wealth will be planted within the next few weeks, anon.
Another important indicator that we’ve continuously seen regardless of the dips in the market, which hints at mainstream adoption on the horizon, is the incredible amount of institutional adoption that’s been taking place. Warner Music recently formed the first-ever NFT-driven music group comprised of Bored Apes, Jimmy Fallon recently publicly became a Bored Ape in front of his FIFTY ONE MILLION twitter followers, and the NFT is even playing along with its recent “crypto punks meets OBJ” trade announcement.
With all of that aside, it still seems like every day we see another project with previously sky-high floor prices get taken down several notches by a small handful of eager sellers taking massive losses. 1/1s in various solid projects are a great place to find some capitulation. Also, Art Blocks has been having a lot of trouble, especially with the supply. Still, plenty of diamonds in the rough there but it certainly is tough to watch this capitulation live on the blockchain.
Jimmy Fallon aside, BAYC has seen a lot of volume recently and may be the Blue Chip that leads us out of the hole. We recommend following Punk 9509 who has been doing some great analysis of blue chip floors. As seen in the chart below, BAYC has mooned over the last few days and is now sitting at a 42 ETH floor compared to just 31 ETH 2 weeks ago.
Per 9059’s data, while punks have taken a beating with the average sale price at a 1-month low, 11/14 had the highest # of sales in the last month. We’ve been ringing this bell for a while now but the whales have been accumulating your favorite jpegs on this dip. This is far from over and every day a new project is going to 0 with little to no hope of ever coming back. But, if you’re like us, you notice that the smell in the air is changing quite a bit.
Big picture - it can become a bit overwhelming living through these dramatic value swings, but as Punk 6529 clearly puts into perspective, we are still disgustingly early. Remember, the right-click savers haven’t slowed down with their attacks on NFTs just yet, so you know we’ve still got plenty of time to accumulate our Jpegs.
Technology ate the world, and now the blockchain is eating tech. Your participation in the NFT space now is positioning you to strategically capture absurd value as we continue to see the world shift to fit our whacky but accurate pre-determined narrative.
New Mints:
Crypto Walkers
Mint Date: Presale on November 18th
Unique concept that feels like it isn’t just another copy pasta PFP. The artwork is solid, the website is quality, and they’ve got a sizable/engaged community that’s still small enough where we’d consider this “getting in early.” The fact that the characters in the artwork are all walking really helps collectors visualize what they will look like once the IP is built out (assumably within a game or video series). We think this is a cool project that’s worth putting on your radar. It most likely has been a few weeks since you’ve minted a new NFT so if you’re itching to take the gamble then Crypto Walkers may be for you. As always, mint at your own risk.
Cold Blooded Creepz
Mint Date: TBA
Muffling through the trenches of low quality PFP projects in the depth of the bear market, we’ve found what is seemingly a breath of fresh air.
Before reading further, just go check out their website and see for yourself. This has the chance to be a future blue chip in the making if they play their cards right. The Creepz are building their project around popular conspiracy theories which should give them a ton of rabbit holes to go down and the building blocks for a robust roadmap (tons of IP opportunity and seeds to spur community engagement within Discord). The community is relatively small so far, however, we’ve been quite surprised by how active the general chat in the discord is. Team is fully doxxed as well which is a major plus. With no set mint date yet, we’ll be monitoring closely to see how they think through their overall growth strategy as we’ve seen plenty of projects with great vision who couldn’t execute. Keep the CBCs on your radar and take a peak in the discord for yourself – could be worth it.
Project Check Ins:
Wanderers
Wanderers are the most asymmetric bet in NFTs right now – full stop. One of the few projects with a floor below 1 ETH that managed to hold its value throughout this “nft winter.” The team continues to execute at an exceptional rate and the floor price is still sitting at a 4X+ from the original mint price. Wanderer #1592 was bought for 9.535 ETH ($44,363.59) this week so there’s plenty of people out there that are clearly as bullish as us. If you haven’t taken the Wanderer-Pill yet then join the discord and check out the community. We plan on doing a long-winded analysis of this project before the EOY. I mean just look at the image below - they’re basically building crypto Star Wars (or Dune since that’s the talk of the town these days).
VOID – Imma Degen
VOIDs have had a tough go of it during this “nft winter” but leadership hasn’t really seemed to care. Seems like every day over the past couple of weeks we’ve seen community members posting AR versions of their VOIDs dancing around in the world. VOIDs are on the cutting edge of the physical metaverse and should not be overlooked. Interestingly, the team has executed on everything they have said they’ve wanted to do and don’t seem to be letting down. However, we’ve been quite disappointed with how these have performed relative to the market. When a team is constantly executing and the community is engaged, this begs the question: is this an undervalued project or is the market correct and people are just not interested in joining the community? Still have them on our radar for now.
Chubbiverse Frens
Run by a seasoned team, major whales consistently shilling on Twitter, and a floor price (.07) that isn’t too far off from the mint price (.09) around 2 weeks ago. We’ve been public about minting some and believe this is a solid bet if willing to hold long term. The team had an ungodly amount of success with Chubicorns - even Steve Aoki had bought a few for 10+ ETH at the time it dropped. And now, the same team has a war chest with over $1M USD to put back into Chubbifrens. Throughout the short life of chubbifrens, there’s been a few sales greater than $25,000 USD on the 1/1s and plenty of these now listed at 10 ETH+. *In our opinion* this is probably one of the best bets for a project to pick up under .1 ETH with the potential to moon.
Axolittles
We’ve been impressed by the resiliency of the Axolittles community. While far off from the original ATH, the discord is active at all hours of the day and the community is positive while the team keeps pushing forward. The floor and volume is slowly crawling back and the project will be adding the ability to stake your Axolittle soon. Oh, and they’ll be air dropping a 3D version of your Axolittle fairly soon too.
That’s all folks! Hope you all enjoyed this week's addition. Feel free to shoot us a DM on Twitter or email us with what you’d like to see more of! We’re super active on twitter so also feel free to tag us in anything interesting.
If you’re feeling friendly feel free to share this with anyone who you feel might otherwise fall into the NGMI category.
Most of all, have a wonderful week!
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Disclaimer about sponsorships: We’ve been getting A LOT of dms about sponsorships and upcoming drops. Many are NGMI but a few projects stood out and have teams that we’ve taken the time to speak with and are excited to share info on in the near future. If you're launching a new project and are looking to work with us on promotion and/or consultation on how to plan a successful drop, feel free to slide in the DMs in Twitter.